MyDD :: House seat gain for Dems

House seat gain for Dems

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 10:53:08 AM EST

Amy Walter, from National Journal, on the Democrats chances in the House:

At this point, we think the Democrats are poised to pick up 12 to 15 seats.

The NJ House rankings are here. The SwingStateReport has the 'power rankings' for the top 50 races.

A 15 seat gain would be tremendous for Democrats in the House in 2008. Going into the 2006 election, there were 202 Democrats and 232 Republicans and 1 Independent. Democrats won 31 seats in '06, and then have won seats in 3 special elections, to now hold a 236-199 advantage heading into the 2008 election.

Larry Sabato is saying a +8 to +14 D gain in the house too, for Democrats.

A 2008 gain of 14 seats would put the Democrats at 250 seats and the Republicans as 185 seats, a 33 seat advantage.

Not quite 1890, and the "NINETY LONE" shellacking, but pretty good.

Tags: Amy Walter, Larry Sabato (all tags)

Permalink :: 18 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: House seat gain for Dems (none / 0)

I would call a 250 to 185 lead a 65 seat advantage, even though a loss of 33 seats in a future election would result in a loss of control. It's the common terminology.

by DaveG on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:27:46 AM EST

250 is the target I am looking at... (none / 0)

...as a successful cycle for the DCCC.

by conspiracy on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 11:45:41 AM EST

Campaign Diaries's projection (none / 0)

Campaign Diaries's latest House ratings of all the competitive races has Democrats picking up 17 seats: http://campaigndiaries.com/house

by LeftistAddiction on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:03:36 PM EST

Re: House seat gain for Dems (none / 0)

Good. NOwthe Blog Birchers will have enve more of their own to eat.

by spirowasright on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:09:04 PM EST

Re: House seat gain for Dems (none / 0)

It's good that Sabato is predicting such a relatively small gain for Democrats. But I'm not going to be surprised if Democrats wind up with 300 seats in the House.

by Beren on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:16:48 PM EST

Re: House seat gain for Dems (2.00 / 2)

How about the Blue Dogs and Dinos? I only think we have a majority when we consistently can get democratic legislation passed.

by Carolyn in Baltimore on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:18:49 PM EST

out of it on health care (2.00 / 1)

Here's what McCain said yesterday:

Pointing to a reporter on the bus with fair skin, McCain said it is critical to get suspect moles and blemishes checked out so they can be removed or treated to avoid major surgery and other problems.

"If you have a mark, go to your dermatologist. See your dermatologist every six months," he said.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/con tent/local_news/stories/2008/07/25/mccai n25.ART_ART_07-25-08_A1_39AREHR.html?sid =101

How many people have a dermatologist? And how many can just show up every 6 months to see her or him?

We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.

by politicsmatters on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:25:09 PM EST

Re: out of it on health care (none / 0)

Any one with a PPO or a referral from an HMO... I don't like McCain but you are REALLY stretching on this one.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 01:06:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: out of it on health care (none / 0)

Ya need the stats of the tens of millions without either?

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:42:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good News and (2.00 / 1)

With redistricting in the near horizon, next year and in 2010 we need to do well at the local level, too. If we do that, then 2012 could be a banner year for the Democrats and make progressives the dominant political force for many years to come.

Dizzy Zzyzzy

by Zzyzzy on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 12:52:42 PM EST

Re: Good News and (none / 0)

We are going to lose 1-2 seats in PA in 2010 and unless things really turn around at the State Level it will be 1 or maybe even 2 Democrats.

In Ohio they are going to lose at least 1 Democrat.

I am not sure about other states, but I don't expect re-districting to go well for us.

"And to my fellow Americans I say this... get off my lawn." John McCain, August 2008

by JDF on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 01:31:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good News and (none / 0)

We're not going to lose democrat if we regain the house chamber in Columbus. Redistricting can easily wipe out 2-3 republicans even if we have to take out a safe democratic district.

It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

by LordMike on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 06:04:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good News and (none / 0)

I would love to see that. I am just repeating what I have heard from people involved in the state.

"And to my fellow Americans I say this... get off my lawn." John McCain, August 2008

by JDF on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 08:54:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Debbie Cook Needs to be part of that majority (none / 0)

Dana Rohrabacher is facing Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook for California's 46th. Cook is a compelling candidate and will make a great representative. Donate to (actblue.com/page/LAforCook) and support Debbie Cook for Congress 46th District (DebbieCookforCongress.com) Help Retire Rohrabacher and Create an Effective Democratic Majority

by Active Activist on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 01:31:06 PM EST

Re: House seat gain for Dems (none / 0)

Here in Colorado...dumping Musgrave is our number #1
House priority..

Dr. Paccione would make a fine progressive Congresswoman

http://www.angiepaccione.com/

also important is re-electing Perlmutter from a Republican district..
http://perlmutter.house.gov/

A blue Colorado..
Led by Obama/Udall..Perlmutter..Paccione
can send a message to the Salazar brothers that they will not be safe in 2010 with their records as GOP enablers...

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 03:37:55 PM EST

House Seat overview (none / 0)

DemConWatch has an overview of a number of different House projections. The current projections average out to a gain of 6.7 seats.

Matt - DemConWatch

by msn1 on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 09:02:49 PM EST

1890 (none / 0)

HOLY SHIT. First: wow, the New York Times has archived articles from 1890! When I first looked at the date, I thought it must be a joke -- I didn't think the NYT was online yet in 1890. But it apparently was released on .pdf instead, which makes more sense for the time period. Though I could have sworn that computers weren't as widespread before the 1970's or so, which is a good 80 years after that. The New York Times has always been a visionary newspaper, I guess, publishing electronically before the discovery of the electron.

But HOLY SHIT. A 151-seat majority. 90 seats in the minority. Small Congress? NO! 241 Democrats to 90 Republicans! HOW THE HELL DID THAT HAPPEN? No wonder Benjamin Harrison was voted out!

by mauro7inf on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 12:55:09 AM EST

Re: House seat gain for Dems (none / 0)

As long as one of them is Dina Titus over Jon Porter, NV-3.

The netroots all but ignored NV-3 and Tessa Hafen until it was too late in '06. Let's not let it happen again.

by Gary Kilbride on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 03:48:42 AM EST

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